As we transition from the summer months into autumn, the cheese market, particularly in Ireland, the UK, and the broader EU, faces significant developments, with key trends affecting mozzarella, cheddar, Emmental, and other cheese varieties.
Post-Summer Overview and Autumn Outlook
Now that summer has ended, buyers and suppliers are preparing for a season of heightened demand. The autumn period typically sees renewed cheese consumption in the lead-up to year-end celebrations and colder weather, which boosts demand for heartier, dairy-rich meals. Supply-side pressures, compounded by seasonal changes in milk production and rising costs, are expected to influence prices significantly in Q4 2024.
Key Market Drivers for Q4 2024:
Rising Input Costs: Both milk production and energy prices are contributing to rising cheese prices. Ireland and the UK, like many parts of Europe, are grappling with reduced milk yields, driven by unfavorable weather and increased feed costs. This directly affects cheese production costs.
Supply Chain Disruptions: European cheese markets are still facing supply chain disruptions from earlier in the year. This is exacerbated by seasonal fluctuations in milk production, which typically drops after the peak summer months, leading to tighter availability and higher prices.
Drivers: Butter is trading at €8000/MT, manufactures are diverting milk to butter production as it’s more lucrative, this will have an adverse effect on the Cheddar pool in the market.
Sales Outlook for Q4:
Given the rising prices and tighter supply outlook, it is advisable for buyers to secure contracts early to mitigate further price increases in the latter half of the year. This is particularly true for mozzarella and cheddar, where the combination of high demand and lower milk production is expected to drive prices even higher.
Conclusion
As we head into autumn and approach the year-end, the cheese market in Ireland, the UK, and Europe is expected to experience rising prices driven by tight supply and high demand. All cheeses are seeing notable price increases due to constrained supply. Strategic buying and early contract agreements will be key to navigating this period effectively.
Your Sincerely
Ian Galletly
Managing Director
Catherine’s role is Technical Assistant and she is one of the newer members of the Ingredient Solutions team. Catherine recently graduated in Food Science and Innovation at WIT and is motivated, positive and enjoys working in a team. Catherine says, “I always see the good in every challenge that approaches me as they can lead to opportunities to learn more.” She is looking forward to focusing on the areas that she can control and learning how to perfect them.
Ted is the Factory Manager, he is the man that keeps everything running smoothly, supporting production and technical operations. He ensures that all the machinery within the factory functions at maximum efficiency and is properly maintained.
Suma has worked for Ingredient Solutions for two years as Technical Manager – leading the technical team. Before working for Ingredient Solutions, Suma worked in Asia, the Middle East and Europe and has over twenty years experience in management and leadership in food and other industries.
Pina is our UK Sales Support Administrator and has worked for Ingredient Solutions since 2012. She works alongside Gary Davies and the sales team providing them with sales information and supporting the team especially when they are on the road. Pina works remotely for Ingredient Solutions from her base in Luton in the UK.
Marek is based near Lublin, that’s not a typo we don’t mean Dublin, he’s our man on the ground in Eastern Europe.
