As we move through the middle of Q4 2025, the Irish and wider European cheese markets have clearly shifted into a new phase compared with the first half of the year. After a prolonged period of strong and occasionally overheated pricing, both mozzarella and cheddar have seen meaningful corrections. In recent weeks, however, the pace of the decline has slowed, and the market now appears to have settled into a narrower, more predictable trading band
Price Levels & Recent Movements
MOZZARELLA
Through late Q3 and into early Q4, mozzarella prices across Europe eased back from their earlier highs. Buyers showed resistance to further increases, stocks grew after a strong summer season, and much of the rapid upward momentum seen earlier in 2025 gave way to a more Normalized trading pattern.
Spot prices remain below peak but are still above long-term averages, supported by continued demand from industrial and foodservice channels. The market is now behaving more calmly: buyers are purchasing steadily and methodically, rather than rushing to secure volume at any cost.
CHEDDAR (MILD & MATURE)
Cheddar has followed a similar path. EU data show cheddar averaging around €3,500/tonne in early November—below the highs recorded earlier in the year but still roughly 6% above the same period in 2024. Mild cheddar has absorbed most of the price easing, with more product available and stronger pushback from buyers. Mature cheddar has held up better, supported by its premium positioning and continued export demand in Northern Europe.
Overall, cheddar markets no longer feel like they’re in decline. Instead, trading behaviour suggests the market is attempting to find a floor.
SUPPLY, MILK & INPUT COSTS
Across butter and powders, wholesale values have fallen significantly in recent months. Butter, for example, has dropped from more than €7,000/tonne earlier in the year to around €5,440/tonne by early November. Skim milk and whole milk powders have also posted double-digit declines versus last year.
These softer values have eased pressure on the broader dairy complex, reducing competition for milk between cheese production and alternative product streams.
Farm-gate milk prices have stabilised in the low-to-mid 50s cent/kg range after rising steeply into early 2025. They remain high by historical standards, but the upward momentum has largely dissipated.
For processors, this combination—slightly lower selling prices but persistently elevated milk costs—is tightening margins. This dynamic is helping to keep cheese prices from falling too far, as the economics of production place a natural limit on how low values can go. Milk collections are following a normal seasonal pattern into winter: lower than peak months, but not alarmingly short. Overall, supply feels balanced.
DEMAND & COMMERCIAL BEHAVIOUR
Demand remains steady but more measured. Retail and foodservice volumes continue to perform well, with mozzarella and cheddar retaining their central role in convenience foods, pizza, ready meals, and festive products. Underlying global growth in mozzarella usage, especially in processed and foodservice channels, continues to support the category.
However, after two years of inflation, buyers are displaying greater price sensitivity. Some private-label customers and industrial users have adjusted specifications, extended stock cover slightly, or introduced substitution strategies where feasible.
Earlier in Q4, many buyers focused on unwinding high-priced contracts agreed earlier in the year. Now that the market has reset and stabilised, they are returning to forward coverage, but with a more cautious strategy that emphasises shorter-to-medium-term commitments, tighter volume planning, and firmer negotiation on price and terms.
Premium and value-added cheese formats—such as flavoured or extra-mature cheddars, speciality mozzarellas, and functional shredded or blended formats—continue to perform robustly, reflecting ongoing premiumisation and consumers’ willingness to pay more for convenience and quality.
SUSTAINABILITY IN 2026: WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE FOOD INDUSTRY
Sustainability rules are tightening across the UK and EU — and food manufacturers are right in the middle of it all.
In the EU, the new Circular Economy Act aims to double circularity rates by 2030, pushing for more recycling and reuse. The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) are being simplified, cutting red tape and helping businesses report their sustainability data more easily. By late 2026, expect to see new consumer labels showing how products perform on durability and environmental impact.
In the UK, the UK Sustainability Reporting Standards (UK SRS) will start to phase in, requiring more transparency about climate-related risks. There are also changes coming to seafood traceability under updated IUU fishing rules — with stricter documentation needed for exports to the EU.
Across both regions, there’s also a growing clampdown on greenwashing — meaning environmental claims must be backed by solid evidence, not just good intentions.
MARKET BALANCE: “CORRECTED AND STABILISED”
Bringing these elements together, the mid-Q4 cheese market can best be described as corrected, stabilised, and more orderly. Prices have retreated from the extremes of late 2024 and early 2025, but most of the corrective pressure now appears to be behind us. Trading ranges have tightened, suggesting a more balanced market characterised by adequate—but not excessive—milk supply, steady demand, softer competing commodity prices, and processor margins that limit further downside.
The result is a market that has moved beyond the aggressive price rises of the recent past, but is far from collapse. Instead, it has entered a “new normal”: below the peak, above long-term lows, and broadly stable—for now.
